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Some days back, I happen to see this post which boasts the share of M$ products in market. It is really pathetic to see people using the statistical data in an unscientific way (maybe due to their ignorance) to mislead people. In this case, this person has used the statistical data from W3 Schools, to project the market share of Microsoft Windows. At the first sight, upon seeing the stats given by him you will get an impression that M$ Windows is really ruling the market. But after some analysis is done with the raw data, the picture becomes clearer.

First I have added the Windows family for each month (i.e Win 95+Win 98+Win NT+Win 2000+Win XP+Win 2003+Win Vista). I gave them a moderation (for Win 95 in 2008, 2007, 2006 & 2005 and for Win NT in 2008 & 2007), the maximum value of 0.5% if they weren’t listed in the table. This is because the W3 Schools shows only those platforms with market share greater than 0.5%.

The data was available only for alternate months till January 2008, hence I allotted the previous months data whenever the data was absent. Then I plotted graph between the market-shares of M$ Windows family and the rest (GNU/Linux & Mac) from 2003 to 2008.

The results:-

1) Windows Family Growth (?)

Trend of Microsoft Family Operating Systems from 2003 to 2008

From this graph it is clear that the curve has a general negative slope though it stabilizes in the final months, whose future is still in question. The huge share of M$ products in world market is because of the high percentage of software piracy in India and China (which according to some is a conscious attempt by the M$ people, which should be true as they have a dark history of such nasty business tricks)

2) GNU/Linux family growth

Exponential growth of GNU/Linux family from 2003 to 2008

It is quite evident that over the years the number of GNU/Linux users are increasing. The improvements in user interfaces, awareness on FREEDOM of free softwares, flexibility and scalability of free softwares, security and stability of GNU/Linux platforms made the crowd to move to GNU/Linux, even in case of F1 racing where precision and speed are both required without any compromise. In the coming years we can see the exponential rise in the usage of GNU/Linux due to the faster development of the GNU/Linux distros compared to the contemporary ones. The best example is, Ubuntu developed by Canonical is released every six months, still offer better stability, security and facilities compared to the 6 year gap between Microsoft Windows XP and Vista.

3) MAC growth

Growth of MAC systems from 2003 to 2008

No wonder in rise of eye candy Mac systems on a web designer fundae site like W3 schools. The data from the W3 Schools may have been collected from the clicks to the site. But there is no way from the data to correlate the decline in Windows family to individual growth of MAC.

Conclusion:

  1. Windows is *NOT* growing.
  2. GNU/Linux and MAC are steadily growing.
  3. You cannot trust the click tracking from such specialized sites, unless they are from sites like Google or Orkut which attracts all classes of people.

I am quoting the words of Benjamin Disraeli which I found in the W3 schools statistics page.

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics”

Future Works: To do some neural network simulation (or some prediction algorithm) to predict the death of Windows. Read this too.

UPDATES: (1) It was just now my firend Srinivas asked me this question “JUNK fellaw, how much time will it take for GNU/Linux to overtake M$ Windows. See, Windows is nearly 90% and GNU/Linux is hardly 5%…
A genuine question, but with an answer…”Not more than 5 years, India was well below Iran at the initial stages of Orkutting, at one stage everyone thought US would overtake Brazil, but now its INDIA overtaking US to claim the second position and soon we will see INDIA on top. WHY? Because of population, software piracy is really high in India and China, which magnifies the market share of Windows. If we move onto GNU/Linux, you can see a drastic rise in GNU/Linux users and a more deeper decline in Windows users

(2) The world’s fastest-growing economies reject Microsoft by Matt Asay

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